The trust in the democracies and credibility of the military Western alliances depends on whether it can discourage Mr. Putin from achieving its objective.


Editors

It is about 5 hours to Easter Sunday on the Christian calendar in the Krasnogorivtsy region, East Ukraine. A narrow road, between pine forests and arable land, is covered by a thick layer of fresh snow. The temperature oscillates around minus 17 Celsius. Out of a blue, a mortar shell explodes. A patrol soldier dies at the scene.

Since Russia invaded this part of the world in March 2014, at least 13,000 died. In the last two years, rebels went silent. But from February, when the Kremlin announced it wants to improve the security of the Donetsk region, the fighting has intensified. Organisation for the Security and Co-operation in Europe stated in the April 6th report, that Russian rebels started to breach regularly the peace agreement. From April 2 to 5, Russian rebels opened fire 1424 times, compared to 594 incidents in the previous week. 

On Saturday night, the Russian army demonstratively relocated at least 2,000 to 3,000 pieces of the military hardware to the border with Ukraine. Dozens of the videos published on the social network showed tanks and armored vehicles on trains moving to the border. Columns of the military trucks and personnel transport approached Russian-occupied Crimea.

NATO and the US warned Russia of sending troops and heavy weapons to the rebels
Kremlin responded with an unprecedented amount of military drills on the ground, sea, and air.

NATO and the US warned Russia of sending troops and heavy weapons to prop up proxies who seized a swath of the eastern Donbas region in 2014. Kremlin responded with an unprecedented amount of drills on the ground, sea, and air. Putin’s army is exercising around Russia from the military fields nearby the Belorussian border to the Kamchatka Peninsula and even the Japan sea and the Arctic.

Some serious independent Russian analysts suggested that the full-scale operation may take in May with an offensive from the sea. Russian troops may land in the difficult to defend part of the land between Odesa and Mykolaiv. Other analysts said, that the Russian rebels reinforced with the modern Russian military equipment can start a war when the roads are dry. That is by the end of next week. 


On Tuesday, April 6, Mr. Putin said through his spokesman that he is concerned about the safety of Russians in Eastern Ukraine.

Such a statement is a signal that the Russian tyrant decided on the attack. The Defense Minister's observation that 370,000 soldiers were vaccinated may be also information about the scale of the Russian army’s involvement. 



The world, especially Indo-Pacific nations, particularly Australia,
must closely watch the development in Ukraine

The world, especially Indo-Pacific nations, particularly Australia, must closely watch the development in Ukraine for three reasons: Mr. Putin’s lesson on eroding international law for other tyrants, implementation of a limited goal military operations, and enforcement of the organised-crime based economic and political system in a previously democratic country.



Testing ground for operations like the invasion of Taiwan or Vietnam

Mr. Putin is teaching tyrants, like Communist China, to openly dishonor international law with pre-meditated military operations. It is a testing ground for other similar operations, for instance, invasion of Taiwan or the Philippines. Secondly, Kremlin will prove, once again, the weakness of the Western alliance. NATO will not risk a nuclear or even conventional confrontation on its territory unless the Alliance has a strategy to stop Putin's nuclear forces. Thirdly, Russia will expand its political and economic regime that was entirely built on the organised crime.

The West must convince Putin that his objective is unachievable

Such war will result in four consequences: it will further devalue human life. It will unavoidably increase energy prices due to the destabilisation of the region with the main transfer networks and reduce investors’ optimism.

It is evident that once the war will break out the only winner will be Russia and Communist China. Therefore the trust in the democracies and credibility of the military alliances depends on whether it will be able to discourage Mr. Putin from achieving its objective. And it is why the whole world, particularly countries in the Indo-Pacific with the looming invasion of Taiwan, must closely watch it.