Russian Specialist: An Army May Be Forced to Nuclear Strike in Kavkazus



If the armed conflict deteriorates, the Russian army may have to utilise limited nuclear strike to stop an attack on Nagorno-Karabakh, said the military specialist.



The exchange of heavy fire between Azerbaijan and the Nagorno-Karabakh armies has continued contributing to the increasing toll of death and injured that, according to official information on Tuesday morning, reached 58 and about 200 respectively.

The footage provided by both sides shown the artillery launches and other missile launched destroying rival's heavy military equipment, including tanks and military transport vehicles.

Armenia's Defence Ministry provided, also a video showing black medical helicopters marked with red crosses bringing wounded soldiers to the hospitals in the capital. The close-ups of the wounded showed that the injured were still conscious.






The West is demanding a ceasefire

The European Union demanded a ceasefire and immediate negotiations in the conflict over the disputed region. The German federal government regards the newly ignited fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan as a dangerous situation, said government spokesman Steffen Seibert.

German Federal Foreign Minister Heiko Maas described the clashes as alarming. I call on both parties to the conflict to immediately stop all fighting, and in particular, the shelling of villages and towns said Maas. A spokeswoman for the Federal Foreign Office added that the federal government is in contact with both sides through the local embassies.

The EU also called on Armenia and Azerbaijan for an immediate ceasefire after the fighting flared up. A spokesman for Foreign Affairs Representative Josep Borrell described the latest developments as very worrying. There could be no military solution to the dispute, he emphasized.

Earlier on Monday, UN Secretary-General António Guterres and EU Council Chairman Charles Michel, the US government, and the Council of Europe had called for an immediate end to the fighting. Mr. Guterres wanted to speak to Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev and the Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan about the end of the fighting and possible negotiations, it said.



Armenia has to request Moscow for aid

But the military conflict, which erupted on Sunday is becoming a proxy confrontation between Turkey and Russia who backed the sides of the conflict. Until Tuesday morning, Moscow has not sent any military aid to Armenia, according to the information from Yerevan defence ministry officials.

Although formally Russia has its military base in Gyumri the military are not Russians but Armenians, the contractors of the Russian defense ministry. According to the specialists until recently conflict over the Nagorno-Karabakh did not force Moscow to transfer any heavy weapons to Armenia.



A footage of Nagorno-Karabakh army confronting Azerbaijan forces
Source: Nagorno-Karabakh government

 

In accordance with the treaties on the military cooperation, Armenia has to officially request Moscow for such support. It can happen only when Azerbaijan attacks the territory of Armenia.

It is why Armenia's PM Nikola Pashinian stated on Tuesday that he may be forced to sign a new agreement on the defence and cooperation with Nagorno-Karabakh. The PM words were reported by the leader of the ruling party Ms. Lilyt Makhuntz.

But Azerbaijan could provide a sufficient reason for Armenia to ask for Russia's intervention in the conflict. On Tuesday, Armenia's defence ministry informed that the Azerbaijan army attacked the military infrastructure in the city of Varduz in the southeast of the country. The government official stated one civilian has died during the attack.



Turkish army is already in Azerbaijan

The military specialists are warning that if diplomats fail to establish negotiations for both sides, the new war in Southern Kavkazus may be long and expensive. Armenian and Russian forces have limited potential, in comparison to Azerbaijan, backed by the third Turkish field army currently stationing in barracks nearby the border with Nagorno-Karabakh.

 


Besides, the third still unrecognised player, Iran, is sending its Shiite groups to the area hoping for escalation of the confrontation with Turkey in Syria to Nagorno-Karabakh and southern Kavkazus, suggested a Russian military specialist Alexander Golts, during the discussion at Radio Svoboda, on Monday.

If Turkey would decide to annex part of the territory with the Christian-populated towns of Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenia and Russia potential may not suffice to counter-attack, stated prominent Russian military analysts Pavel Felgengauer. In such a situation, the conflict may reach an unprecedented level. Moscow can decide to strike with a military weapon against the emptied area without any inhabitants or attack a military base in Anatolia only to show that it is ready for such a war, Mr. Felgengauer stated.

But it would be an unprecedented decision not only in terms of the first use of the military weapon since 1945 but also that it would mean the attack against NATO of which Turkey is a member.

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